US Treasurys are under pressure on Tuesday with selling running yields up as much as 6 basis points at the long end of the yield curve.
The complex has been hit by some hawkish Fed speak and reports the European Central Bank is considering a gradual wind down of its asset purchase program.
Tuesday morning, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said he would have dissented at the September meeting if he had a vote and that the Fed should raise rates gradually, “but not too gradually,” according to a report from Reuters.
Then on Tuesday afternoon, Treasurys saw another leg lower following a report from Bloomberg’s Jana Randow, Alessandro Speciale and Jeff Black suggesting that the European Central Bank will “probably gradually wind down bond purchases before the conclusion of quantitative easing, and may do so in steps of 10 billion euros ($11.2 billion) a month, according to euro-zone central-bank officials.”
As for the damage, here’s the scoreboard as of 1:21 p.m. ET:
- US 2-year +3 basis points at 0.822%
- US 3-year +3.5 basis points at 0.937%
- US 5-year +4.4 basis points at 1.222%
- US 7-year +5.2 basis points at 1.503%
- US 10-year +5.4 basis points at 1.676%
- US 30-year 6.3 basis points at 2.402%
Action at the front end of the curve is most notable as Tuesday’s selling has the 2-year yield at its highest level since late August. Traders will be watching the 85 basis point area closely as a move above there will have the yield at its highest level since the beginning of June.
Typically when rates move up at the front end of the curve it suggests conditions are moving toward a potential Fed rate hike. Fed fund futures data compiled by Bloomberg show a 21.4% probability of a November rate hike and a 61.2% chance the Fed will raise rates before the end of the year.